The export boom that never happened
I’ve written about before why I wasn’t convinced that a collapsing pound would solve all of the UK’s financial problems.
Today Edmundo then wrote a blog posting about the worsening trade balance.
He’s been quite optimistic in the past that the Bank of England’s strategy was right, so it’s interesting that he’s starting to realise that this recession will lead to the revision of many economics textbooks.
I liked the golf problem mentioned in his blog posting – it’s something which has been overlooked by most observers:
One person recently explained this phenomenon to me as a golf problem. British managers, he said, are too fond of golf. When profits are good, unlike many of their overseas counterparts, who go out and seek further opportunities, they take to the golf course rather than trying to build on those profits. So a devaluation invariably fattens their profits rather than prompting them to expand market share. Anecdotal and vague as this social observation is, there is some grounding in economic evidence: Britain does, according to economist Bill Martin, have a historical tendency to import more and export less as its economy grows.
Who’ll use the iPad?
I’ve been discussing with wifie who’ll use the iPad, and we find it hard to find a single group of people that it’s perfect for. Let’s have a look:
- School kids and students won’t like it because they can’t play the Flash games that are their raison d’être, and because they multitask all the time (homework is always done while MSN’ing in another window).
- Content creators (such as bloggers) won’t like it because it doesn’t have a proper keyboard, and because it’s hard to attach a camera.
- Gadget nerds will think they don’t really need it because they already have an iPhone, a netbook, a laptop and a portable DVD player.
- Mature technophobes who would really like a minimal solution for light web browsing and emailing won’t like it because the iPad requires a proper computer for synchronisation, too.
- Business people will not buy it because it cannot be connected to a lightpro for presentations, and they might also want a front-facing camera for conferencing.
- Commuters won’t like it because it’s hard to hold on to on public transport.
- Porn addicts will dislike that it needs to be held in the hands.
- Book readers will not buy it because the screen isn’t as good for reading as electronic paper.
- Women won’t buy it because of the name, and because it doesn’t fit in a handbag.
- Game players will only buy it if there are games available for it that are better than their equivalents on other platforms, and that’s not the case (yet).
So I must admit I find it hard to figure out who exactly will think it’s worth the money, unless some ground-breaking games are soon released for it.
Japanese levels of debt
McKinseyQuarterly has published a scary article (free registration required) that shows how the UK’s debt (private and public sector) has now reached Japanese levels, far higher than other Western countries, including to the US. (Hattip: Guy Fawkes’ blog.)
I’m not sure how serious this is in its own right. For instance, for Japan it is often said that the massive debt is less of a problem because most of the creditors are Japanese, too. However, this is unlikely to be the case for the UK.
All that I can see is that if the UK’s debt needs to be reduced to American (or just French) levels, it’s going to be very, very painful.
Is this why Apple called it the iPad?
It’s well-known that Fujitsu are likely to sue Apple because they believe they own the name “iPad”.
However, fewer people will be aware that the “Apple iPad” was already mentioned in July of 2006:
I wonder whether the producers of this sketch are going to try to sue Apple, too.
Perhaps Apple knew it already and thought that it was so funny that they’d make it happen?
Husk at skylle ud!
Forleden råbte jeg til Léon, der stod i badeværelset: “Husk at skylle ud!”
Han svarede: “I did skyl ud!”
Dette svar overraskede mig, da jeg havde forventet “I did skylle ud!”
Ved nærmere eftertanke er det nu ikke så underligt.
Selvom vi på dansk skriver “husk at skylle ud”, plejer vi at udtale det som “husk og skyl ud” (hvilket jo er grunden til, at DSB kunne kalde deres blad “Ud & Se” og ikke “Ud At Se”).
Man lærer meget om sit eget sprog ved at lære det til et barn! 
Divorces and the happiness of children
Conservative politicians often claim that kids are happier when they grow up in strong families with both parents, but they often conveniently forget that for many parents, the alternative to a divorce is staying in an unhappy, rowing relationship, and is that really better for the kids?
Finally a study on this topic has been released.
The results are very clear:
Young people who reported that their family “gets along well together” are on average 20 per cent happier than those who do not, regardless of whether they live with a single parent, a step-parent or both their birth parents, the study found.
The impact of family conflict on children’s happiness far outstripped family structure, with a child in a lone parent household just 2 per cent unhappier than one living with both birth parents. Children were on average 10 per cent more unhappy in the immediate aftermath of a family break-up or another change in family structure such as gaining a step-parent.
But after a year happiness levels then recovered to almost the same levels as for children who had experienced no family problems.
Hopefully studies like this will eventually make the Tories realise that giving tax-breaks to married couples is probably not the best way to increase child happiness.
How will you hold the iPad?
The usual crowd seem to love the new iPad, but neutral observers seem to be distinctly unimpressed (and not just because of the sanitary name).
I tend to agree.
If it’s supposed to be Apple’s netbook, it should be running MacOS, not the single-tasking OS of the iPod Touch and iPhone that is restricted to applications from Apple’s application store, and it should have at least one USB port so that you can connect a printer, a camera or a keyboard, and a monitor socket so that you can connect it to a lightpro if you’re giving a presentation.
If it’s a hand-held web browser, it should support flash (which is needed for 90% of the web games that are Marcel and Charlotte’s main reason for using a computer).
If it’s an eReader, would most people not prefer a “real” one like the Kindle which uses electronic paper instead of a back-lit LED display, especially as the iPad is only 132 pixels per inch (ppi) compared to the Kindle’s 150/167 ppi or the iPhone’s 163 ppi?
I can also see a problem with how to hold it. You typically balance a netbook on your legs or put it on a table, and you normally hold a smartphone in one hand while you operate it with the other one. Neither seems practical for the iPad: If you balance it on your legs or put it on a table, the angle is wrong for looking at the screen (and you could easily drop it if you’re using it on public transport), and if you hold it in one hand, you only have one hand to operate it with (which is not ideal for fast typing), and it could easily be snatched out of your hand.
I therefore think that most users will buy the keyboard dock and/or the iPad case, which allows the iPad to be positioned upright or at an angle (scroll down to the bottom of the page if you follow the link), but that makes it even more expensive, and even less practical to carry around.
To conclude, I really don’t think the first-generation iPad will catch on. However, Apple could easily design a very attractive second-generation device if they added a few ports, upgraded the OS and integrated the case.
Marcel feels Sick
I had dropped off Léon at nursery yesterday and was about to have breakfast with my beloved wife when we unexpectedly heard Marcel’s voice, asking us where he could find the toast.
When we expressed surprise that he wasn’t at school, he said that Charlotte had left us a note.
This turned out to be true – there was a tiny note on the fridge, amongst all the other papers there, saying “Marcel feels Sick”.
I guess it was quite considerate of Charlotte not to wake us, but it was perhaps not too clever given that we’re supposed to call his school early if he’s ill, and we don’t normally scan the fridge door as soon as we get out of bed.
I guess it’s hard to please parents, though. If the kids ask us questions when we’d rather be asleep, they’re damned, and if they don’t, they’re still damned…
The general election will take place on 3rd June
The news that the UK is only just out of recession (provided that the 0.1% growth figure isn’t adjusted downwards, and its “chances of being revised down by 0.1pc or more are about evens“) means one thing: The next general election will take place on the 3rd of June.
In theory, Gordon Brown can call an election for March, April, May or 3rd June.
However, the next figures will come out in three months’ time, and given that even the Chancellor thinks they might show we’re back in recession, only a very brave man (which he is not) would call an election that saw the figures being released during the election campaign.
This means that he has the choice between March or June.
The sensible choice would be March, while we’re at least officially out of recession, but I’m sure Brown will feel the figures aren’t convincing enough to allow him to pose as the saviour of Britain, so the feartie from Fife will wait till he has had time to massage April’s growth figures if they aren’t to his liking.
I hope I’m wrong, though. The sooner we get rid of Brown, the better.
Unlikely intelligence
The Independent reports that professor Conway Morris has claimed that “alien biospheres will be strikingly similar to the terrestrial equivalent and that in such biospheres intelligence will inevitably emerge”.
From statements such as this one, one would have thought that intelligence had developed many times during the history of this planet.
For instance, it’s reasonable to assume that life on planets with similar gravity and air density will have quadrupeds, bipeds and flying animals, and that eyes and ears and brains are all likely to develop.
Just think about how similar the body shapes of fish, dolphins and ichthyosaurs are, although they have very different origins.
However, it doesn’t seem to be the case that human-level intelligence has ever developed before on Earth.
This makes me wonder whether there’s something about high intelligence that makes it almost impossible as an evolutionary strategy.
I think I read somewhere that there is genetic evidence that the human race almost died out before it really got started (cannot find the link just now), so although we were eventually very successful, it was hard to get there.
Another way of looking at it is that there has only been human-level intelligence for approximately 100,000 years out of the past 500,000,000 years (the time of the Cambrian explosion), or 0.02% of the time.
I wish somebody could explain to me why high intelligence never appeared before. Surely evolution could have produced it many times, and much sooner, if only it had been a successful evolutionary strategy.