Just impossible

August 28, 2007 by thomas · Comment
Filed under: en, politics 

The Telegraph lists what the Labour rebels who are demanding a referendum on the new EU treaty want as their price for dropping this demand.

A couple of the items could possibly be arranged by an additional British opt-out, but the majority involves preventing the rest of the countries from doing what they want. For instance, to “drop plans for further extension of majority voting and stick with the provisions agreed in talks on the Nice Treaty in 2000″ is just impossible – this is one of the major reasons for the new treaty in the first instance.

There is no way Brown can give in to these demands, even if he wanted to. So it will be interesting to see if they’ll actually force him into a referendum.

The problem with a referendum is what to do if the British vote No. The other countries might offer a few additional opt-outs, but anything as radical as this list will be turned down, and I’d say it’s likely the UK would be forced to leave the EU, possibly after a second referendum.

North and South

August 28, 2007 by thomas · 1 Comment
Filed under: en, politics 

north south divide.jpg
Originally uploaded by remarked

The Guardian has some very interesting regional breakdowns for their latest poll.

About the LibDems, it says:

In the north Lib Dem support is firm: 22% now, against 23% in 2005. But in the south – where most Lib Dem MPs are elected – it has collapsed, down nine points at 19%. That means the Liberal Democrats are now stronger in the north than the south for the first time since their formation. The party has also dropped back seven points in London. Polling day could be brutal.

The Tories seem to be going backwards in the north of England, but growing a lot in the south, so it looks like the LibDems and the Tories might increasingly be carving England up between them.

The consequence of that would be that the only realistic alternative to a Labour government could be a Tory-LibDem coalition, but of course the electoral system could make things turn out very different.

It will be interesting to see whether these results are confirmed by other polls. And I do wonder whether it will force a change of LibDem leadership – I’m pretty sure all LibDem MPs for the south of England are feeling very worried today!