The Widmann Blog: November: 2008

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The five tests have been met

It made me happy today to see that Duff of the LibDems has pointed out that the UK should join the euro:In 1997 Mr Brown set five so-called economic tests to judge sterling's accession to the eurozone. Suddenly, all these criteria are met. The pound has fallen to a competitive exchange rate level. The City risks being pushed aside as...

The effect of devaluation

The pound has been falling against the euro throughout the millennium.

This means that it’s becoming less and less attractive for foreigners to work here, and more and more attractive for British people to emigrate to the continent.

To show the effect, I’ve taken a hypothetical worker, earning £21k in the UK eight years ago, and the equivalent, €35k in the Eurozone. I’ve then increased the salary by 3% each year:

Year Exch. rate Worker in the UK Worker in Eurozone Percentage
2000 0.60 £21000 €35000 £21000 €35000 100%
2001 0.62 £21630 €34887 £22351 €36050 97%
2002 0.64 £22279 €34811 £23764 €37132 94%
2003 0.70 £22947 €32782 £26772 €38245 86%
2004 0.70 £23636 €33765 £27575 €39393 86%
2005 0.69 £24345 €35282 £27996 €40575 87%
2006 0.68 £25075 €36875 £28418 €41792 88%
2007 0.71 £25827 €36377 £30562 €43046 85%
2008 0.84 £26602 €31669 £37243 €44337 71%

This is a dramatic change. In other words, seen from the continent, British people are now earning only 71% of what they did eight years ago.

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