2010/04/28 22:19
FiveThirtyEight, an American election web site that was the place to visit for predictions about US elections (their coverage of the last presidential election was awesome) have started to make predictions about the UK election.They are working on a different model than most British forecasters, and in general they're forecasting a worse result for Labour, and a better one for...
2010/04/25 22:29
In the UK, the LibDems want to introduce STV (which they argue is the best form of proportional representation – I'd prefer the Danish system), and Labour have recently decided to support AV; however, the Tories remain committed to FPTP (although they want to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%, which they probably think will help them).I'm a bit...
2010/04/30 6:51
Most pollsters agree that Cameron won the third debate and that Brown lost it.
However, swing voters seemed to think Clegg did best.
FiveThirtyEight have published a post-debate analysis of seats, and for the scenario where the Tories advance a tiny bit while the LibDems take many votes away from Labour (Con 36, LD 31, Lab 24), they predict Con 335, LD 144, Lab 140.
In other news yesterday, Mervyn King (the governor of the Bank of England) was reported to have said that “whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be.”
I was very disappointed that nobody confronted them with this quote in yesterday’s debate, but it makes me wonder whether the Tories are making a huge mistake by trying to win this election.
Just imagine the next general election in 2014 if the Conservatives have had a very small majority of 335 (out of 650) while the LibDems have been the official opposition…
If King and the IFS are right, and if the Greek crisis starts affecting the UK, the country would have seen four extremely painful years, full of strikes, unemployment and bankruptcies, and it would all be blamed on the Tories.
Meanwhile, Clegg and Cable would have been pointing out all their errors every week at the despatch box.
I can’t help thinking the Tories would secretly prefer a hung parliament that would allow them to share the blame.
2010/04/27 22:15
Amaia has always been a big baby, but never a fat one.Furthermore, her appetite has been something to behold – some days and nights it seems she seems to be drinking breast milk non-stop when she's not sleeping.So a couple of days ago, we decided to try to feed her a bit of rice porridge with apple and pear that we bought in Denmark (marked "four months"), although the recommendation in the UK at the moment is not to feed...
2010/04/26 22:23
PoliticsHome and YouGov have investigated where the LibDem surge is concentrated (hattip: UK Polling Report).The brilliant thing about their table is that it feeds directly into the regional predictor on Electoral Calculus.The predicted election result is Con 291 (+83), LD 94 (+27), Lab 233 (-113), Nat 11 (+3).One to watch on election night is Oliver Letwin, who is here predicted...
2010/04/21 15:04
YouGov asked an interesting question recently: "How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election?"The result is astounding. YouGov's Peter Kellner writes: "The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative...
2010/04/19 20:23
I saw on UK Polling Report that Angus Reid is now reporting these figures: Con 32%, LD 32%, Lab 24%.This is such a big gap between the LibDems and Labour that it made me wonder whether this could actually lead...
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