The Widmann Blog: election

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A brief explanation of the Danish general election result

The British media seem to have commented widely on the Danish general election which took place on the 15th of September 2011, but they seem mainly to have been concerned with the fact that the leader of the Social Democrats, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, is Neil Kinnock's daughter-in-law, and they have been wondering why her surname isn't Rasmussen like all other prime...

99%

Så er resultatet næsten klar – se her.DrV bliver igen større end SF, og S + SF + DrV + EL får sammen med de nordatlantiske mandater flertal:S + SF: 60 S + SF + DrV + EL: 89 S + SF + DrV + LA: 86 S + SF + DF: 82 V + K + DF: 77 V...

I don’t like the Single Transferable Vote

In Scotland we use different voting systems for every single election – First-past-the-post for Westminster, AMS for the Scottish Parliament, STV for Scottish council elections, and d’Hondt for the elections for the European Parliament.

I personally prefer d’Hondt and don’t mind AMS, but I really don’t like STV (the Single Transferable Vote).

On paper it’s a beautiful system. As Wikipedia puts it, “under STV, an elector’s vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate, and then, after candidates have been either elected or eliminated, any surplus or unused votes are transferred according to the voter’s stated preferences. The system minimizes “wasted” votes, provides approximately proportional representation, and enables votes to be explicitly cast for individual candidates rather than for closed party lists. It achieves this by using multi-seat constituencies (voting districts) and by transferring votes to other eligible candidates that would otherwise be wasted on sure losers or sure winners.”

However, this only really works well if voters remember to vote for all the candidates they would like to get elected. In practice, many voters will only vote for one or perhaps two candidates, which leads to a lot of wasted votes.

Even worse, because the political parties anticipate this flaw, they don’t put up more candidates than they expect they can get elected. This is because they fear that if there are two candidates from party X but only votes enough for one candidate to be elected, the two candidates will share the votes so evenly that none of them get through.

An example of this was the elections to Glasgow City Council in 2007: The SNP put up 22 candidates and got them all elected; however, in many wards they got so many votes that it’s likely they could have got more people elected if they had tried. Labour didn’t seem to suffer much from putting up a very large number of candidates, but if their share of the vote had been a bit lower, it’s quite possible they would’ve ended up with fewer councillors than if they had put up fewer candidates.

This way of second-guessing the number of candidates you can get elected is to my mind quite undemocratic and requires a solution. If STV cannot be abolished, I think it should be obligatory to rank all the candidates (but that would probably lead to a very large number of spoilt ballot papers).

However, to me the best solution would be to replace STV with either AMS or d’Hondt.

Den politiske situation nu er ikke et spejlbillede af 2001

På valgaftenen spurgte en journalist Enhedslistens Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, om hun var den nye Pia Kjærsgaard, og jeg tror, mange formodede, Danmark nu får en regering, der er lige så venstreorienteret, som Anders Foghs var højreorienterede.Men situationen nu er slet ikke den samme som i 2001, blot med modsat fortegn. Det foreløbige resultat fra valget i går er: EL 12, SF 16, S 44, DrV 17, LA 9, K 8, V 47, DF 22, og hvis man spejlvender resultatet fra 2001,...

Midterpartiernes sejr

Det radikale Venstre og Liberal Alliance fik ved dette valg tilsammen 26 mandater. Det er dobbelt så mange, som midterpartierne fik i 2001 (se de lilla områder til højre).Naturligvis var valget i dag også en sejr for Enhedslisten, men det var reelt nok bare en masse SF'ere, der var blevet trætte af Villys ministerdrømme: S + SF + EL fik...
Prognose med 71% optalt
Prognose her:S + SF: 62 S + SF + DrV + EL: 89 S + SF + DrV + LA: 87 S + SF + DF: 84 V + K + DF: 77 V + K + DF + LA...
Prognose med 47% optalt
Næsten halvdelen af stemmerne er nu optalt, så prognoserne begynder nu at stabilisere sig. Baseret på DR's tal er her den nyeste mandatfordeling.Det ser desværre ikke ud til, at S, SF og DrV kan lave flertal med LA i stedet...

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